Use of Response Permutation to Measure an Imaging Dataset's Susceptibility to Overfitting by Selected Standard Analysis Pipelines.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: This study demonstrates a method for quantifying the impact of overfitting on the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC) when using standard analysis pipelines to develop imaging biomarkers. We illustrate the approach using two publicly available repositories of radiology and pathology images for breast cancer diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For each dataset, we permuted the outcome (cancer diagnosis) values to eliminate any true association between imaging features and outcome. Seven types of classification models (logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, Naïve Bayes, linear support vector machines, nonlinear support vector machine, random forest, and multi-layer perceptron) were fitted to each scrambled dataset and evaluated by each of four techniques (all data, hold-out, 10-fold cross-validation, and bootstrapping). After repeating this process for a total of 50 outcome permutations, we averaged the resulting AUCs. Any increase over a null AUC of 0.5 can be attributed to overfitting. RESULTS: Applying this approach and varying sample size and the number of imaging features, we found that failing to control for overfitting could result in near-perfect prediction (AUC near 1.0). Cross-validation offered greater protection against overfitting than the other evaluation techniques, and for most classification algorithms a sample size of at least 200 was required to assess as few as 10 features with less than 0.05 AUC inflation attributable to overfitting. CONCLUSION: This approach could be applied to any curated dataset to suggest the number of features and analysis approaches to limit overfitting.

Oncologic Outcomes of Salvage Abdominoperineal Resection for Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Initially Managed with Chemoradiation.

Background: Abdominoperineal resection (APR) has been advocated for persistent or recurrent disease after failure of chemoradiation (CRT) for anal squamous cell cancer (SCC). Treatment with salvage APR can potentially achieve a cure. This study aimed to analyze oncological outcomes for salvage APR in a recent time period at a comprehensive cancer center. Methods: A retrospective review of all patients who underwent APR for biopsy-proven persistent or recurrent anal SCC between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2020 was performed. Patients with stage IV disease at the time of initial diagnosis and patients with missing data were excluded. Univariate analysis was used with a chi-square test for categorical variables, and non-parametric tests were used for continuous variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate disease-specific (DSS), post-APR local recurrence-free (RFS), and disease-free survival (DFS). Results: A total of 96 patients were included in the analysis: 39 (41%) with persistent disease and 57 (59%) with recurrent SCC after chemoradiation had been completed. The median follow-up was 22 months (IQR 11-47). Forty-nine patients (51%) underwent extended APR and/or pelvic exenteration. Eight (8%) patients developed local recurrence, 30 (31%) developed local and distant recurrences, and 16 (17%) developed distant recurrences alone. The 3-year DSS, post-APR local recurrence-free survival, and disease-free survival were 53.8% (95% CI 43.5-66.5%), 54.5% (95% CI 44.4-66.8%), and 26.8% (95% CI 18.6-38.7%), respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, positive microscopic margin (OR 10.0, 95% CI 2.16-46.12, p = 0.003), positive nodes in the surgical specimen (OR 9.19, 95% CI 1.99-42.52, p = 0.005), and lymphovascular invasion (OR 2.61 95% CI 1.05-6.51, p = 0.04) were associated with recurrence of disease. Gender, indication for APR (recurrent vs. persistent disease), HIV status, extent of surgery, or type of reconstruction did not influence survival outcomes. Twenty patients had targeted tumor-sequencing data available. Nine patients had PIK3CA mutations, seven of whom experienced a recurrence. Conclusions: Salvage APR for anal SCC after failed CRT was associated with poor disease-specific survival and low recurrence-free survival. Anal SCC patients undergoing salvage APR should be counseled that microscopic positive margins, positive lymph nodes, or the presence of lymphovascular invasion in the APR specimen are prognosticators for disease relapse. Our results accentuate the necessity for additional treatment strategies for the ongoing treatment challenge of persistent or recurrent anal SCC after failed CRT.

Predicting Long-Term Childhood Survival of Newborns with Congenital Heart Defects: A Population-Based, Prospective Cohort Study (EPICARD).

Backgroud: Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most frequent group of major congenital anomalies, accounting for almost 1% of all births. They comprise a very heterogeneous group of birth defects in terms of their severity, clinical management, epidemiology, and embryologic origins. Taking this heterogeneity into account is an important imperative to provide reliable prognostic information to patients and their caregivers, as well as to compare results between centers or to assess alternative diagnostic and treatment strategies. The Anatomic and Clinical Classification of CHD (ACC-CHD) aims to facilitate both the CHD coding process and data analysis in clinical and epidemiological studies. The objectives of the study were to (1) Describe the long-term childhood survival of newborns with CHD, and (2) Develop and validate predictive models of infant mortality based on the ACC-CHD. Methods: This study wasbased on data from a population-based, prospective cohort study: Epidemiological Study of Children with Congenital Heart Defects (EPICARD). The final study population comprised 1881 newborns with CHDs after excluding cases that were associated with chromosomal and other anomalies. Statistical analysis included non-parametric survival analysis and flexible parametric survival models. The predictive performance of models was assessed by Harrell's C index and the Royston-Sauerbrei RD2, with internal validation by bootstrap. Results: The overall 8-year survival rate for newborns with isolated CHDs was 0.96 [0.93-0.95]. There was a substantial difference between the survival rate of the categories of ACC-CHD. The highest and lowest 8-year survival rates were 0.995 [0.989-0.997] and 0.34 [0.21-0.50] for "interatrial communication abnormalities and ventricular septal defects" and "functionally univentricular heart", respectively. Model discrimination, as measured by Harrell's C, was 87% and 89% for the model with ACC-CHD alone and the full model, which included other known predictors of infant mortality, respectively. The predictive performance, as measured by RD2, was 45% and 50% for the ACC-CHD alone and the full model. These measures were essentially the same after internal validation by bootstrap. Conclusions: The ACC-CHD classification provided the basis of a highly discriminant survival model with good predictive ability for the 8-year survival of newborns with CHDs. Prediction of individual outcomes remains an important clinical and statistical challenge.

Patient metabolic profile defined by liver and muscle 18F-FDG PET avidity is independently associated with overall survival in gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: PET-CT-based patient metabolic profiling is a novel concept to incorporate patient-specific metabolism into gastric cancer care. METHODS: Staging PET-CTs, demographics, and clinicopathologic variables of gastric cancer patients were obtained from a prospectively maintained institutional database. PET-CT avidity was measured in tumor, liver, spleen, four paired muscles, and two paired fat areas in each patient. The liver to rectus femoris (LRF) ratio was defined as the ratio of SUVmean of liver to the average SUVmean of the bilateral rectus femoris muscles. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to identify the impact of LRF ratio on OS. RESULTS: Two hundred and one patients with distal gastroesophageal (48%) or gastric (52%) adenocarcinoma were included. Median age was 65 years, and 146 (73%) were male. On univariate analysis, rectus femoris PET-CT avidity and LRF ratio were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.05). LRF ratio was significantly higher in males, early-stage cancer, patients with an ECOG 0 or 1 performance status, patients with albumin > 3.5 mg/dL, and those with moderately differentiated tumor histology. In multivariable regression, gastric cancer stage, albumin, and LRF ratio were significant independent predictors of overall survival (LRF ratio HR = 0.73 (0.56-0.96); p = 0.024). Survival curves showed that the prognostic impact of LRF was associated with metastatic gastric cancer (p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated LRF ratio, a patient-specific PET-CT-based metabolic parameter, was independently associated with an improvement in OS in patients with metastatic gastric cancer. With prospective validation, LRF ratio may be a useful, host-specific metabolic parameter for prognostication in gastric cancer.

Three-Dimensional Margin as a Predictor of Local Tumor Progression after Microwave Ablation: Intraprocedural versus 4-8-Week Postablation Assessment.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic accuracy of intraprocedural and 4-8-week (current standard) post-microwave ablation zone (AZ) and margin assessments for prediction of local tumor progression (LTP) using 3-dimensional (3D) software. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data regarding 100 colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) in 75 patients were collected from 2 prospective fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT)-guided microwave ablation (MWA) trials. The target CLMs and theoretical 5- and 10-mm margins were segmented and registered intraprocedurally and at 4-8 weeks after MWA contrast-enhanced CT (or magnetic resonance [MR] imaging) using the same methodology and 3D software. Tumor and 5- and 10-mm minimal margin (MM) volumes not covered by the AZ were defined as volumes of insufficient coverage (VICs). The intraprocedural and 4-8-week post-MWA VICs were compared as predictors of LTP using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 19.6 months (interquartile range, 7.97-36.5 months). VICs for 5- and 10-mm MMs were predictive of LTP at both time assessments. The highest accuracy for the prediction of LTP was documented with the intra-ablation 5-mm VIC (area under the curve [AUC], 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.89). LTP for a VIC of 6-10-mm margin category was 11.4% compared with 4.3% for >10-mm margin category (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A 3D 5-mm MM is a critical endpoint of thermal ablation, whereas optimal local tumor control is noted with a 10-mm MM. Higher AUCs for prediction of LTP were achieved for intraprocedural evaluation than for the 4-8-week postablation 3D evaluation of the AZ.

Tumour deposits are independently associated with recurrence in colon cancer.

AIM: Tumour deposits are focal aggregates of cancer cells in pericolic fat and mesentery, distinct from vessels, nerves and lymphatics. Their presence upstages lymph node negative patients but is ignored in lymph node positive patients. We investigated the clinicopathological factors associated with tumour deposits and their impact on recurrence in lymph node positive and negative patients. METHOD: Clinicopathological variables were collected from the medical records of patients with Stage I-III colon cancer who underwent resection in 2017-2019. Pathology was reviewed by a gastrointestinal pathologist. Patients with rectal cancer, metastasis, and concurrent malignancy were excluded. RESULTS: Tumour deposits were noted in 69 (9%) of 770 patients. They were associated with the presence of lymph node metastasis, advanced T category, poorly differentiated tumours, microsatellite stable subtype and lymphovascular and perineural invasion (p < 0.05). The presence of tumour deposits (hazard ratio 2.48, 95% CI 1.49-4.10) and of lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio 3.04, 95% CI 1.72-5.37) were independently associated with decreased time to recurrence. There was a weak correlation (0.27) between the number of tumour deposits and the number of positive lymph nodes. CONCLUSION: Tumour deposits are associated with more advanced disease and high-risk pathological features. The presence of tumour deposits and lymph node metastasis were found to be independent risk factors for decreased time to recurrence. A patient with both lymph node metastasis and tumour deposits is more than twice as likely to have recurrence compared with a patient with only lymph node metastasis. Tumour deposits independently predict recurrence and should not be ignored in lymph node positive patients.

Randomized Prospective Trial of Epidural Analgesia after Open Hepatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether patient-controlled epidural analgesia (PCEA) improves postoperative pain during ambulation following elective open hepatectomy. BACKGROUND: Strategies to alleviate postoperative pain are a critical element of recovery after surgery. However, the optimal postoperative pain management strategy following open hepatectomy remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, nonblinded, randomized comparison of PCEA (intervention) versus intravenous patient-controlled analgesia (IV PCA; control) for postoperative pain following elective open hepatectomy. The primary end point was pain during ambulation on postoperative day (POD) 2. The study was powered to detect a clinically significant 2-point difference on the pain numeric rating scale (NRS). Secondary end points included pain at rest, morbidity, time to return of bowel function, and length of stay. RESULTS: From 2015 to 2020, 231 patients were randomized (116 patients in the PCEA arm and 115 in the IV PCA arm). The incidence of epidural failure was 3% (n=4/116), with no epidural-related complications. Patients in the PCEA arm had a <2-point difference in NRS pain scores during ambulation on POD 2 vs. IV PCA (median 4.0 vs. 5.0, P <0.001). There was no difference in overall complications between the PCEA and IV PCA arms (33% vs. 40%, P =0.276). Secondary outcomes, including pain scores at rest, were similar between the study arms. CONCLUSIONS: PCEA was safe following open hepatectomy and was associated with a small difference in pain with activity on POD 2 that did not reach our pre-specified definition of clinical significance.

Establishing Regionalized Acute Care Across a Health Care System to Decentralize Postoperative Care After Oncologic Surgery.

PURPOSE: Patients undergoing oncologic surgery at major referral centers frequently experience postdischarge care fragmentation, which has been associated with poor outcomes. This report describes and evaluates the outcomes of an intervention at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) to decentralize postdischarge postoperative acute care within our health care system. METHODS: In 2018, MSKCC completed the addition of six regional acute care clinics called symptom care clinics (SCCs) to existing regional outpatient clinics. Acute care was previously only available within our system at a single centralized urgent care center (UCC). All patients undergoing surgery in our system between January 1, 2019, and June 30, 2021, were followed for 90 days. The exposure was the site of initial acute care presentation-UCC or SCC-and outcomes included utilization, access, financial toxicity, and mortality. Mortality was adjusted using hierarchical modeling at the level of the region. RESULTS: A total of 6,992 postsurgical patients experienced 10,525 acute care visits in our system within 90 days of surgery. Twenty-nine percent of these patients presented to the SCC first. These patients were older but had fewer comorbidities and shorter index length of stay compared with UCC patients. Utilization of SCCs increased substantially while UCC utilization decreased during a period of stable case volume. SCCs were closer to patients' homes, and wait times were shorter. Rates of financial toxicity were similar between groups. Of this high-risk cohort accessing acute care postoperatively, 90-day mortality was similar for UCC and SCC patients (P = .731). CONCLUSION: This model of decentralized acute care after oncologic surgery was increasingly used over time with comparable patient safety. Health systems should emphasize patient-centered care by supporting safe strategies for regionalized care even when treatments are delivered at centralized referral centers.

Validation of a Clinical Calculator Predicting Freedom From Colon Cancer Recurrence After Surgery on the Basis of Molecular and Clinical Variables.

BACKGROUND: The Memorial Sloan Kettering clinical calculator for estimating the likelihood of freedom from colon cancer recurrence on the basis of clinical and molecular variables was developed at a time when testing for microsatellite instability was performed selectively, based on patient age, family history, and histologic features. Microsatellite stability was assumed if no testing was done. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to validate the calculator in a cohort of patients who had all been tested for microsatellite instability. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTINGS: Comprehensive cancer center. PATIENTS: This study included consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for stage I, II, or III colon cancer between 2017 and 2019. INTERVENTION: Universal testing of mircrosatellite phenotype in all cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The calculator's predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index and a calibration plot of predicted versus actual freedom from recurrence at 3 years after surgery. For a secondary sensitivity analysis, the presence of a tumor deposit(s) (disease category N1c) was considered equivalent to one positive lymph node (category N1a). RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 32 months among survivors, the concordance index for the 745 patients in the cohort was 0.748 (95% CI, 0.693-0.801), and a plot of predicted versus observed recurrences approached the 45° diagonal, indicating good discrimination and calibration. In the secondary sensitivity analysis for tumor deposits, the concordance index was 0.755 (95% CI, 0.700-0.806). LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by its retrospective, single-institution design. CONCLUSIONS: These results, based on inclusion of actual rather than imputed microsatellite stability status and presence of tumor deposits, confirm the predictive accuracy and reliability of the calculator. See Video Abstract . VALIDACIN DE UNA CALCULADORA CLNICA QUE PREDICE LA AUSENCIA DE RECURRENCIA POSTQUIRURGICA DEL CNCER DE COLON SOBRE LA BASE DE VARIABLES MOLECULARES Y CLNICAS: ANTECEDENTES:La calculadora clínica del Memorial Sloan Kettering para la estimación de la probabilidad de ausencia de recurrencia del cáncer de colon sobre la base de variables clínicas y moleculares, se desarrolló en un momento en que las pruebas para la inestabilidad de microsatélites se realizaban de forma selectiva, basadas en la edad del paciente, los antecedentes familiares y las características histológicas. Se asumía la estabilidad micro satelital si no se realizaba ninguna prueba.OBJETIVO:El objetivo de este estudio fue validar la calculadora en una cohorte de pacientes a los que se les había realizado la prueba de inestabilidad de microsatélites.DISEÑO:Análisis de cohorte retrospectivo.AJUSTE:Centro integral de cáncer.PACIENTES:Pacientes consecutivos con cáncer de colon que fueron sometidos a resección curativa por cáncer de colon en estadios I, II o III entre los años 2017 y 2019.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:La precisión predictiva de la calculadora fue evaluada mediante el índice de concordancia y un gráfico de calibración de la ausencia de recurrencia predecida versus la real a los 3 años tras la cirugía. A los efectos de un análisis secundario de sensibilidad, la presencia de depósito(s) tumoral(es) (categoría de enfermedad N1c) se consideró equivalente a un ganglio linfático positivo (categoría N1a).RESULTADOS:Con una mediana de seguimiento de 32 meses entre los supervivientes, el índice de concordancia para los 745 pacientes de la cohorte fue de 0,748 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %, 0,693 a 0,801), y una gráfica de recurrencias previstas versus observadas se acercó a la diagonal de 45°, indicando una buena discriminación y calibración. En el análisis secundario de sensibilidad para depósitos tumorales, el índice de concordancia fue de 0,755 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %, 0,700 a 0,806).LIMITACIONES:Diseño retrospectivo, institución única.CONCLUSIONES:Estos resultados, basados en la inclusión real del estado de estabilidad de microsatélites en lugar de imputado y la presencia de depósitos tumorales, confirman la precisión predictiva y la confiabilidad de la calculadora. (Traducción-Dr Osvaldo Gauto ).

Risk Factors for Progression in Patients Undergoing Surveillance for Pancreatic Cysts.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors associated with the progression of pancreatic cysts in patients undergoing surveillance. BACKGROUND: Previous studies of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) rely on surgical series to determine malignancy risk and have inconsistently identified characteristics associated with IPMN progression. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of 2197 patients presenting with imaging concerning for IPMN from 2010 to 2019 at a single institution. Cyst progression was defined as resection or pancreatic cancer development. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 84 months from the presentation. The median age was 66 years, and 62% were female. Ten percent had a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer, and 3.2% had a germline mutation or genetic syndrome associated with an increased risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Cumulative incidence of progression was 17.8% and 20.0% at 12 and 60 months postpresentation, respectively. Surgical pathology for 417 resected cases showed noninvasive IPMN in 39% of cases and PDAC with or without associated IPMN in 20%. Only 18 patients developed PDAC after 6 months of surveillance (0.8%). On multivariable analysis, symptomatic disease [hazard ratio (HR)=1.58; 95% CI: 1.25-2.01], current smoker status (HR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.16-2.15), cyst size (HR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.20-1.33), main duct dilation (HR=3.17; 95% CI: 2.44-4.11), and solid components (HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.34-2.66) were associated with progression. CONCLUSIONS: Worrisome features on imaging at presentation, current smoker status, and symptomatic presentation are associated with IPMN progression. Most patients progressed within the first year of presentation to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC). Further investigation is necessary to develop personalized cyst surveillance strategies.

Anal Adenocarcinoma Treated in the Era of Total Neoadjuvant Therapy and Nonoperative Management.

BACKGROUND: Anal adenocarcinoma bears a treatment strategy unique to other anal cancers. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe oncologic outcomes of total neoadjuvant therapy followed by watch-and-wait approach for anal adenocarcinoma. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTINGS: This study was conducted at a comprehensive cancer center. PATIENTS: Patients with anal adenocarcinoma treated between 2004 and 2019 were selected. INTERVENTIONS: Fifty-four patients received neoadjuvant therapy and were divided into 2 groups according to their treatment strategy: total neoadjuvant therapy versus single neoadjuvant modality therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Organ preservation, tumor regrowth, local failure, distant metastasis rates, recurrence-free survival, and overall survival. RESULTS: This study included 70 patients with anal adenocarcinoma. Fifty-four patients (77%) received neoadjuvant therapy, of whom 30 (42%) received total neoadjuvant therapy and 24 (34%) received single neoadjuvant modality. Twenty-three (33%) patients achieved complete clinical response and were managed by watch-and-wait approach. The proportion of patients able to continue to watch-and-wait approach was higher after receiving total neoadjuvant therapy (60%) compared with single neoadjuvant modality therapy (20%; p = 0.004). A tumor regrowth rate of 22% was observed in the total neoadjuvant therapy group. The 5-year overall survival rate was 70% (95% CI, 59%-83%), including 61% (95% CI, 42%-88%) for the total neoadjuvant therapy and 65% (95% CI, 48%-88%) for the single neoadjuvant modality groups. Colostomy was avoided in 50% of patients who received total neoadjuvant therapy and 83% of watch-and-wait patients. Five-year recurrence-free survival rates of 55% (95% CI, 39%-79%) and 30% (95% CI, 15%-58%) were observed in the total neoadjuvant therapy and single neoadjuvant modality groups. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective nature. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report in the literature describing the safety and feasibility of nonoperative management for anal adenocarcinoma. Anal adenocarcinoma treated with total neoadjuvant therapy and nonoperative management achieve regrowth rates comparable to those observed in rectal cancer, with oncologic outcomes similar to those of traditional treatment strategies. See Video Abstract . ADENOCARCINOMA ANAL TRATADO EN LA ERA DE LA TERAPIA NEOADYUVANTE TOTAL Y EL TRATAMIENTO NO QUIRRGICO: ANTECEDENTES:El adenocarcinoma anal conlleva una estrategia de tratamiento único para otros cánceres anales.OBJETIVO:Describir los resultados oncológicos de la terapia neoadyuvante total seguida de observar y esperar en adenocarcinoma anal.DISEÑO:Análisis retrospectivo.AJUSTE:Este estudio se llevó a cabo en un centro oncológico integral.PACIENTES:Se seleccionaron pacientes con adenocarcinoma anal tratados entre 2004-2019.INTERVENCIONES:Cincuenta y cuatro pacientes recibieron terapia neoadyuvante y se dividieron en dos grupos según su estrategia de tratamiento: terapia neoadyuvante total versus terapia de modalidad neoadyuvante única.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:Preservación de órganos, recurrencia tumoral, falla local, tasas de metástasis a distancia, libre de recurrencia y supervivencia general.RESULTADOS:El estudio incluyó a 70 pacientes con adenocarcinoma anal. Cincuenta y cuatro pacientes (77%) recibieron terapia neoadyuvante, de los cuales 30 (42%) recibieron terapia neoadyuvante total y 24 (34%) recibieron modalidad neoadyuvante única. Veintitrés (33%) pacientes presentaron una respuesta clínica completa y fueron tratados con vigilancia y espera. La proporción de pacientes capaces de continuar en observar y esperar fue mayor después de recibir terapia neoadyuvante total (60%) en comparación con la terapia de modalidad neoadyuvante única (20%) ( p = 0,004). Se observó una tasa de recurrencia tumoral del 22% en el grupo de terapia neoadyuvante total. La tasa de supervivencia general a 5 años fue del 70% (IC95% 59%-83 %), incluido el 61% (IC95% 42%-88%) para la terapia neoadyuvante total y el 65% (IC95% 48%-88%) para grupos de modalidad neoadyuvante única. Se evitó la colostomía en el 50% de los pacientes que recibieron terapia neoadyuvante total y el 83% de los pacientes en observar y esperar. Se observaron tasas de supervivencia libre de recurrencia a cinco años del 55% (IC95% 39%-79%) y del 30% (IC95% 15%-58%) en los grupos de terapia neoadyuvante total y modalidad neoadyuvante única, respectivamente.LIMITACIONES:Diseño retrospectivo.CONCLUSIONES:Este es el primer informe en la literatura que describe la seguridad y viabilidad del tratamiento no quirúrgico del adenocarcinoma anal. El adenocarcinoma anal tratado con terapia neoadyuvante total y manejo no quirúrgico logra tasas de recurrencia comparables a las observadas en el cáncer de recto, con resultados oncológicos similares a las estrategias de tratamientos tradicionales. (Traducción-Dr. Fidel Ruiz Healy ).

Probability of Regulatory Approval Over Time: A Cohort Study of Cancer Therapies.

PURPOSE: New cancer therapies are frequently evaluated in multiple disease indications. We evaluated whether the probability of achieving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for a new cancer therapy changes with time. METHODS: We identified a cohort of anticancer drugs with a first registered efficacy trial from 2007 to 2011 on ClinicalTrials.gov. We downloaded all clinical trials for each included drug from the initiation of efficacy testing to January 11, 2021. Each trial was categorized by cancer indication and assigned to investigational trajectories on the basis of unique drug-indication pairings. We performed a univariate Cox's proportional hazards regression to assess the probability of a trajectory leading to regulatory approval over time since initiation of the first efficacy trial for a given drug. RESULTS: We included 213 drugs in our cohort, of which 37 (17.4%) received FDA approval in at least one oncology indication. In our primary analysis, we found a 15% decrease in the probability of approval for every year since initiation of the first efficacy trial (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85 [95% CI, 0.73 to 0.99]; P = .032). We found a 45% increase in the probability of approval for the first trajectory launched for a given drug in comparison with all others (HR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.33 to 0.91]; P = .021). CONCLUSION: Drug-indication pairings pursued years after initial testing for efficacy have lowered probability of affecting care. Clinical trial investigators, sponsors, and regulatory bodies may benefit from awareness of this trend when considering both early and late trajectory trials in a drug's development.

Surgical Margin of Resected Colorectal Liver Metastases:: How Accurate is Surgeon Prediction?

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the surgeon's ability to accurately predict the margin following resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The decision to resect CRLM is based on the surgeon's ability to predict tumor free resection margins. However, to date, no study has evaluated the accuracy of surgeon margin prediction. METHODS: In this single-institution prospective study, the operating attending and fellow independently completed a preoperative and postoperative questionnaire describing their expected resection margin in 100 consecutive cases (200 assessments) of colorectal liver metastasis resections. In cases with multiple metastases, the closest margin was assessed as the margin of interest for the primary outcome. Surgeon assessments were compared to the gold-standard histopathologic assessment. RESULTS: After excluding aborted cases, 190 preoperative and 190 postoperative assessments from 95 cases were included in the analysis. The pathologic margin was noted to be wide (≥1 cm), 1 mm to 1 cm, narrow (<1 mm), and positive in 28 (29.5%), 55 (57.9%), 5 (5.3%), and 7 (7.4%) cases, respectively. The 88 cases with negative margins were all predicted to be negative. None of the cases with positive margins were predicted to be positive. Ninety-one (48%) preoperative and 104 (55%) postoperative predictions were accurate. The sensitivity of predicting a margin <1 mm was 8.3% preoperatively and 16.7% postoperatively. The positive predictive value for preoperative and postoperative predictions of margin <1 mm was 18.2% and 26.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons are inaccurate at predicting positive and close surgical margins following resection of CRLM. A predicted close margin should not necessarily preclude resection.

The Importance of Optimal Thermal Ablation Margins in Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 21 Studies.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in the US. Thermal ablation (TA) can be a comparable alternative to partial hepatectomy for selected cases when eradication of all visible tumor with an ablative margin of greater than 5 mm is achieved. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to encapsulate the current clinical evidence concerning the optimal TA margin for local cure in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CLM). METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the CENTRAL databases were systematically searched from inception until 1 May 2023, in accordance with the PRISMA Guidelines. Measure of effect included the risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) using the random-effects model. RESULTS: Overall, 21 studies were included, comprising 2005 participants and 2873 ablated CLMs. TA with margins less than 5 mm were associated with a 3.6 times higher risk for LTP (n = 21 studies, RR: 3.60; 95% CI: 2.58-5.03; p-value < 0.001). When margins less than 5 mm were additionally confirmed by using 3D software, a 5.1 times higher risk for LTP (n = 4 studies, RR: 5.10; 95% CI: 1.45-17.90; p-value < 0.001) was recorded. Moreover, a thermal ablation margin of less than 10 mm but over 5 mm remained significantly associated with 3.64 times higher risk for LTP vs. minimal margin larger than 10 mm (n = 7 studies, RR: 3.64; 95% CI: 1.31-10.10; p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis solidifies that a minimal ablation margin over 5 mm is the minimum critical endpoint required, whereas a minimal margin of at least 10 mm yields optimal local tumor control after TA of CLMs.

Recurring Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumor: Timing and Pattern of Recurrence and Current Treatment.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe the pattern of recurrence, treatments received, as well the oncological outcomes, of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) following curative surgery. BACKGROUND: PanNETs recur in 10% to 15% of cases following surgery. Information on the natural history and management of recurring disease is lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with PanNET that underwent curative surgery at 4 institutions between 2000 and 2019 were identified. Patients with poorly differentiated tumors, unknown tumor grade and differentiation, hereditary syndromes, unknown margin or R2 status, metastatic, and those that had neoadjuvant treatment or perioperative mortality were excluded. Clinical variables were assessed including first site of recurrence, treatment received, and survival outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1402 patients were included: 957 (74%) had grade 1, 322 (25%) had grade 2, and 13 (1%) had grade 3 tumors. Median follow-up was 4.8 years (interquartile range: 2-8.2 years). Cumulative incidence of recurrence at 5 years was 13% (95% CI: 11%-15.2%) for distant disease, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-2.3%) for locoregional recurrence, and 0.8% (95% CI: 0.4%-1.5%) for abdominal nodal recurrence. Patients who recurred had 2.89 increased risk of death (95% CI: 2-4.1) as compared with patients who did not recur. Therapy postrecurrence included: somatostatin analogs in 111 (61.0%), targeted therapies in 48 (26.4%), liver-directed therapies in 61 (33.5%), peptide receptor radionuclide therapy in 30 (16.5%), and surgery in 46 (25.3%) patients. Multiple treatments were used in 103 (57%) cases. After the first recurrence, 5-year overall survival was 74.6% (95% CI: 67.4%-82.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence following surgery is infrequent but reduces survival. Most recurrences are distant and managed with multiple therapies. Prospective studies are needed to establish strategies for surveillance and the sequence of treatment to control the disease and prolong survival.

Modeling Tumor Growth Using Partly Conditional Survival Models: A Case Study in Colorectal Cancer.

PURPOSE: There are multiple approaches to modeling the relationship between longitudinal tumor measurements obtained from serial imaging and overall survival. Many require strong assumptions that are untestable and debatable. We illustrate how to apply a novel, more flexible approach, the partly conditional (PC) survival model, using images acquired during a phase III, randomized clinical trial in colorectal cancer as an example. METHODS: PC survival approaches were used to model longitudinal volumetric computed tomography data of 1,025 patients in the completed VELOUR trial, which evaluated adding aflibercept to infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan for treating metastatic colorectal cancer. PC survival modeling is a semiparametric approach to estimating associations of longitudinal measurements with time-to-event outcomes. Overall survival was our outcome. Covariates included baseline tumor burden, change in tumor burden from baseline to each follow-up time, and treatment. Both unstratified and time-stratified models were investigated. RESULTS: Without making assumptions about the distribution of the tumor growth process, we characterized associations between the change in tumor burden and survival. This change was significantly associated with survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.05; P < .001), suggesting that aflibercept works at least in part by altering the tumor growth trajectory. We also found baseline tumor size prognostic for survival even when accounting for the change in tumor burden over time (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.02; P < .001). CONCLUSION: The PC modeling approach offers flexible characterization of associations between longitudinal covariates, such as serially assessed tumor burden, and survival time. It can be applied to a variety of data of this nature and used as clinical trials are ongoing to incorporate new disease assessment information as it is accumulated, as indicated by an example from colorectal cancer.

Lymph Node Metastases and Associated Recurrence-Free Survival in Microsatellite Stable and Unstable Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to microsatellite stable (MSS) colon cancer, predictors of lymph node metastases and their association with recurrence are not well-defined in microsatellite instability (MSI) colon cancer. METHODS: A cohort of nonmetastatic colon cancer patients undergoing surgery between 2015 and 2021 were evaluated for predictors of lymph node metastases (LNMs) and their association with recurrence-free survival (RFS). RESULTS: Of 1466 patients included in the analyses, 361 (25 %) had MSI. Compared with MSS, MSI was associated with earlier stage, fewer LNMs in the patients with N1 or N2 disease, and fewer high-risk features. Compared with the T3-T4 MSS patients, the odds ratios for LNM were 0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38-0.71) for the T3-T4 MSI patients, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.38-0.71) for the T1-T2 MSS patients, and 0.15 (95 % CI, 0.08-0.26) for the T1-T2 MSI patients. In both groups, LNMs were associated with T category, patient age, and venous, lymphatic, or perineural invasion. In the MSS patients, LNMs were additionally associated with patient sex and histologic grade. Compared with the MSS patients, the MSI patients with N0 and N1 disease had a better 3-year RFS. However, the MSI patients with N2 disease had a lower rate of 3-year RFS than the MSS patients (hazard ratio, 19.75 vs 4.49). CONCLUSIONS: In MSI colon cancer, LNMs are 50 % less prevalent, but the factors associated with LNM are like those in MSS colon cancer. The improved prognosis traditionally associated with early-stage MSI colon cancers dissipates with four or more LNMs. These findings should be taken into consideration by clinicians selecting the most appropriate course of treatment for MSI colon cancer.

Interferon response and epigenetic modulation by SMARCA4 mutations drive ovarian tumor immunogenicity.

Cell-intrinsic mechanisms of immunogenicity in ovarian cancer (OC) are not well understood. The presence of damaging mutations in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex, such as the SMARCA4 (BRG1) catalytic subunit, has been associated with improved response to ICB, however the mechanism by which this occurs is unclear. The aim of this current study was to examine the alterations in tumor cell-intrinsic and extrinsic immune signaling caused by SMARCA4 loss. Using OC models with loss-of-function mutations in SMARCA4 , we found that SMARCA4 loss resulted in increased cancer cell-intrinsic immunogenicity, characterized by upregulation of long-terminal RNA repeats such as endogenous retroviruses, increased expression of interferon-stimulated genes, and upregulation of antigen presentation machinery. Notably, this response was dependent on IRF3 signaling, but was independent of the type I interferon receptor. Mice inoculated with cancer cells bearing SMARCA4 loss demonstrated increased activation of cytotoxic T cells and NK cells in the tumor microenvironment as well as increased infiltration with activated dendritic cells. These results were recapitulated when animals bearing SMARCA4- proficient tumors were treated with a BRG1 inhibitor, suggesting that modulation of chromatin remodeling through targeting SMARCA4 may serve as a strategy to reverse immune evasion in OC.